Sunday, 23 August · 17:07 BST

Good afternoon, James.

The engine is learning. Capital remains safely disconnected.

Paper mode

No live capitalPhase 2 evidence gate: 126 of 200 paper signals captured. Live Betfair access remains locked.

63% complete

Paper bankroll

£1,028.40Illustrative · +2.84%

Mean CLV · trailing 20

+1.84%Target > 0%

Positive CLV rate

58.7%Target > 55%

Current drawdown

4.2%Hard stop at 30%

Calibration error

0.026Gate < 0.030

Closing-line value

Signal quality is trending positive

Mean CLV+1.84%

20 signals agoLatest signal

Retrospective

Last week

Positive CLV

Signals assessed8

Beat the close5 / 8

Mean CLV+1.31%

Paper P&L−£6.20

Negative P&L is shown without qualification. CLV remains the decision metric.

Coming weekend

Ranked shortlist

Only signals clearing every quality, liquidity and freshness gate.

3 qualified

Port Vale vs. ExeterMatch odds · Home

Rest advantageHome xG trendTravel load

Model48%

Best price2.26Betfair

Net edge+8.5%

Liquidity£184at price

IndicativePaper £9.40no execution

Fresh · 6m

Walsall vs. GillinghamUnder 2.5 goals

Dixon–ColesLow tempoWind forecast

Model61%

Best price1.76Betfair

Net edge+7.4%

Liquidity£126at price

IndicativePaper £8.10no execution

Fresh · 9m

Grimsby vs. AccringtonMatch odds · Draw

Elo parityInjury deltaDraw profile

Model31%

Best price3.48Betfair

Net edge+7.1%

Liquidity£94at price

IndicativePaper £4.70no execution

Fresh · 12m

Prices and stakes are illustrative. This interface cannot place or authorise wagers.

Near threshold

Watchlist

3 markets

Crewe vs. BromleyHome · 2.8%

Needs 2.31

Notts County vs. NewportOver 2.5 · 2.5%

Needs 1.92

Salford vs. TranmereAway · 2.1%

Lineups pending

Pipeline

System health

5 healthy

Betfair ExchangeHealthy42s

football-data.co.ukHealthy4h

ClubEloHealthy18h

Football-Data.orgDelayed2h

Open-MeteoHealthy11m

Club lineupsMonitoring—

Football-Data.org is inside tolerance but behind its usual cadence.

Model notes

What changed this week

Rolling calibration refreshed. Isotonic fit now includes 126 paper signals; ECE improved from 0.031 to 0.026.

Weather feature retained. Wind remains useful for lower-league goal totals after the point-in-time leakage review.

No model promotion. Residual LightGBM still fails to beat Dixon–Coles reliably in League One.